Take this out of the game, I swear to god I have the worst luck in the world getting muled once every week in express is getting old.

Before anyone questions this YES I do check the math and YES I get muled every set or I have the worst luck in the 60 seconds it takes me to math out a hit.

Mule effect?

You mean Mehul'ed? Which the correct term for EE is Pang'ed, but then I guess now it's Qzjul'ed.

If it's that, are you actually oversending to compensate? at 10% oversend, you still have a 1% chance of it DH'ing.

You can lower it by oversending 11%.

what do you mean by get rid of it?

Do you want it to be so that if you send 100 troops vs 100 troops you ALWAYS fail; and if you send 100 troops vs 99 troops you ALWAYS win?

that's kindof silly

randomness is good

How much are you oversending by? Just oversend by 10% to be safe and you won't fail. Source:

Rank Name Score
1 Rob 99.35%
2 Xinhuan 99.25%
3 Unlinked Account 99.12%
4 Millentillion 99%
5 boneSAW 98.75%
6 Slagpit 98.68%
7 VivaNick 98.58%
8 Rockman 98.35%
9 blid 98.29%
10 ingle 98.02%

Ah, my failure rate is kindof pathetic, considering =(

That said, I also have a habit of just sending blind! =D laziness....

Sending blind saves Turns

I hate it when allies jump the second before you attack. If you check NW's on eestats after you fail a hit you may find that other factors were at work other than randomness.

allies may accept pact while ur doing your attack too

Near the beginning of this Alliance set I sent an FA package to an ally 1 minute before someone attacked him. The attacker DH'd and sent a message about how he'd mehuled.. pretty funny

Ive DHed players with 0 allies and no NW change, this has happened to me for the last 5 F**king weeks, every week I fail atleast one hit due to being "qziled" or whatever you call it. This so called randomness isnt exactly random, I get enough of that when I have 3 droughts and 2 pci fails while building my initial CSes.

In regards to blids comment I over send between 110.1%-115% pending my jets on hand. I always round up to the nearest 1000th and if that leaves me with a few thousand left I usually send it anyways to avoid food costs.

You're calculating something wrongly then.

No I am not calculating anything wrong as I have no other problems calculating every other hit I make. But thanks for the constructive comment, its called bad luck. No fiffrent then running 60 turns and have earthquakes twice in those 60 turns. Or as I stated above many other random fluffty things to go wrong, I have made 0 missiles all set and seen one PCI boom and 2 Work booms that I didnt pay for in 1400ish turns. It all comes down to "luck" and that 1% seems to find me every week.

If you oversend, there is no bad luck.

Did he have defense bonus?

def bonus, weap tech, allies, govt.

My 99.25% attack success rate over 3 years disagrees with you. Every time I fail a grabbed, I was able to identify why I failed after the attack. (Typo, or SS instead of PS, or forgetting to multiply in something, or target's NW or ally NW changed, etc).

If a standard gaussian bell curve was used and, IF it was centered at the exact break, you would have a 50% chance of breaking, but you don't, you have less 50% chance of breaking. If you undersend by 1%, you have a ~10% chance of breaking. I've done a number of tests and haven't found any chances of failing if you oversend by over 10%, though it could be so small (1 in 1000) that the tests didn't pick it up.

One of the failure reasons is people not understanding how the def bonus, weap tech, allies and govt multiply/add into each other, and the order of operations. If you just multiplied everything together, and the target is a Republic, you will fail sometimes if he has D allies, because D allies aren't affected by any multiplier.

I think the gaussian is centered closer to 1.05

Thanks Xinhuan, that's a really good explanation

I've been able to identify why I failed just about every fail of mine except one or two. I had one very mysterious fail, probably my only failed attack on Tourney ever haha. (99.23%) I really think it should have gone through, I have no idea what happened...

if im a rep hitting not a rep, xin, what is the order of operations?

Defender :Total defense * wep * readiness* def bonus* gov * pang (1.10) + d allies


Attacker: total offense * wep *readiness* gov * attackstyle ss/ps(1.00 or 1.50) + o allies

Those are the correct ways yes? Simpler ways, but once i actually figured out the break formulas, i bounce maybe 1 out of 100. An when i do, its because my mathwas wrong or i forgot to hit PS instead of SS

does it matter? divide the amount you need to send by .9

ok blid, currently the equation is divide by point nine!!


fluff does that ever help. yepp. thanks.

My drought with 1 turn left causing a % of my military to leave and dropping me down 500k NW with 1 turn to play says your wrong. Bad luck happens

Do you ever get paranoid Cable? :)

No I was trusting that that fluff wouldnt happen and had just enough food plus a 100ish bushels to play one last turn. I had already jumped had 100 million cash left and was like... ok another 6 million cash couldn't hurt so I bought enough food for one more turn BAM random drought to fluff me... woulda took 8th instead of 9th so thats meaningless but still.....

Dont try and tell me bad luck, I know very well when someone buys as I hit or a DA grows. I wouldn't complain if I didnt suspect being muled.

Well then you got unlucky with the drought. That IS bad luck.

But your original post was blaming it on the Mehul effect (or the Pang effect) or whatever, with the thread title clearly stating so. Being Mehuled has nothing whatsoever to do a random drought - that term specifically refers to failing attacks due to failure to oversend by over 10%.

Your understanding of the term "Mehul effect" might be incorrect, or more accurately, not in line with what the general population of players think it is, particularly if you think it includes getting droughts.

On top of that, your drought example has no relevance to failing attacks due to undersending. A drought cannot cause a PS or SS to fail by itself either. The jets are sent on PS before the drought happens in the 2 turns spent.

We are only talking about the Mehul effect right? And not about your general bad luck?

Being mehuled is bad luck, thats what I have an issue with. Its 1.05% chance and it seems to find me alot. Apparently its never found you 99.25% success rate says you have good luck and I dont. Its not that you can expect to fail 1 outta 100 but 1 out of 100 hits in theory should fail be it yours or someone elses. This doesnt change the fact that I have plain bad luck due to the randomness in this game.

“I know he's a good general, but is he lucky?”
― Napoleon Bonaparte

I round up target's military and def ally's/allies military to next full hundred or thousand and target's weap I round up to next percentage and add 10% to that.

What? I get earthquakes all the time. That's bad luck. But general bad luck is not called "being mehuled", it is only applied to grabbing situations.

My 99.25% success rate has nothing to do with bad luck. I have never got Mehuled - I have been able to explain why I failed each and every failed attack, and none of it is due to being Mehuled. If you oversend sufficiently, you will not fail.