This was back when i was still learning the game., over 10 years ago.

Sidesteps the actual point, glazes himself with a pointless nonsequitur, finishes by telling us how great he is.

No wonder you're so popular.

The point remains, you didn't debunk fluff, lots of oil sells every set, and usually for over $200. Using oiler as a strat works to a point, you need to switch to farmer to stockpile, but I quite literally have the scores to prove it. Fasc oil->farm is a winning strat, because oil sells.

I didn't sidestep. I think you misread the discussion.

Slag was saying the absence of players buying oil doesnt mean a shortage of oil because players can buy oil on private market.

By me putting 40+ million oil on market at $150 users are not going to be buying oil on private. Not even THEO is getting it that cheap. That's what I meant by debunking.

You keep saying I "didn't debunk fluff" but you're not addressing what was actually said.

The point wasn't that no oil ever sells or that oiler can't work at all. The point was that in today’s Express server, with current bot behavior and player patterns, you can sit with 70 million oil at $150 and not even move 10% of it. That’s not theory that’s what happened last set.

You and others might have success running oil/farm hybrids, and that’s fine. But saying oil sells every set doesn’t refute the actual issue. There is a real demand gap in this server's economy unless someone coordinates buys or the bots change behavior.

If you’ve got scores that prove your strat works today, great. But don’t act like putting 40 million oil on at a reasonable price and seeing barely any movement isn’t evidence of something broken.

Nothing works every set. How retarded are you?

I only bought oil last set I didn't produce any, and I killed someone. If you couldn't sell oil in the war happy set we had last set, you did something wrong.

Appreciate the mature response, Vic.

You're right that no strategy works every set. That’s not what I was arguing. I’m saying that even with competitive pricing, oil supply often sits untouched. When one player can produce 70 million barrels and barely sell 4 or 5 million at $150, it’s worth examining whether the mechanics are functioning as intended in Express.

If you have a strat that works in the current environment, great. But calling someone "retarded" instead of addressing the actual points just weakens your position.

Actually, it doesn't take much oil to kill someone on Express.

Say the defender starts with 400k troops and loses 8% per hit. That means each time you hit, they lose 8% of what they have left.

After each hit, their troop count is reduced to 92% of the previous amount:

After 1 hit: 400,000 × 0.92 = 368,000
After 2 hits: 368,000 × 0.92 = 338,560
...and so on.

This forms a geometric sequence. To reduce someone from 400k to under 100 troops:

400,000 × (0.92)^n < 100
Take log of both sides:
n > log(100 / 400000) / log(0.92) ≈ 99

So it takes about 99 hits to get a country starting with 400k troops to under 100 troops (aka 4 oil).

Now for oil. If you're using 100k troops per hit and oil use is 1 oil per 25 units:

Each hit costs 100,000 / 25 = 4,000 oil
Total oil for 99 hits: 4,000 × 99 = 396,000 oil

At $150 per barrel, that's 396,000 × 150 = $59.4 million worth of oil.

That’s the cost to kill a well-defended country. For most countries with fewer troops, it’s even cheaper.

Bottom line: it doesn’t take that much oil. The math doesn’t lie.

You purchased 10,786 Oil Barrels, for $3,451,520.
Some of these goods were purchased for a better price on your private market.

I tried :)

Why would you assume my opponent only started with 400k troops, and didn't buy more troops while I was waiting for turns to come in? This isn't alliance, you can't bring enough turns to kill a country to a single warchat.

Nah, you being retarded is what "Weakens your position." Me accurately describing it saves everyone else time.

You can't "debunk" actions that other players are taking with success just because you failed at it.

In fact, I've seen nothing but a lot of failure from you. Seems to be a pattern.

So I had to buy oil from private all set so far, except this latest grabbing session that I completed.

Jun 13, 12:00 Jun 13, 13:00 $299.00 $299.00 $329,147,572

And then the market ran outta oil, and I had to stop. lol

@niteil

you're having to buy from private bc oiler strat is not worth playing.

@Vic

The example of 400k troops was just a reference point to show how oil costs scale when trying to kill a country. Obviously, a defender can have more troops or buy more during the fight, but the math still gives a reasonable starting point.

Even if the defender had 600k troops and you brought 100k per hit, each hit still costs 4,000 oil.
It takes about 110 to 115 hits to wipe them out, which comes out to around 460,000 oil total.
At $150 per barrel, that’s just under $70 million worth of oil. Not small, but definitely not massive compared to how much oil players try to sell.

Most players overproduce oil expecting huge demand, but in Express you just don’t need that much to kill someone, even a strong target.

So sure, your strat may have worked. But the real problem is that the oil market can’t handle 50 to 70 million barrels per player when multiple people are producing. That’s the part that’s worth a second look.

The math explains it better than isolated success stories ever will.

3M oil barrels bought so far this set. That's already in the range you said was sold total for all of last set, right?
Oil at 299 is cheaper than PM. I have to imagine if supply is continued to be provided at that price or lower, then the total sold will increase substantially in the last days of the set.

Well my last oiler (the first and only I played), played poorly, got top 10, and would have been top 10 last set too!

If you're looking for oiler to finish over 80m nw, then no, that's not happening. If you're thinking top 10 (>20m nw), then yes, an oiler can be top 10 every set. If you wanted to run FFO, then yes, that's a winning strat on Express, and the most straight forward in fact. Not all "strats" need to be viable. You can't win with an straight up MBR on any server now.

The real problem with the oil market in express, is most players don't know how to price their oil, or keep it on market. Every set you'll see a lot of oil on market for $400, which is more expensive than everyone's PM. Or it's just empty. And then out of nowhere, you see super cheap oil going on market. lol

All oil sold on public this set so far.
Time start Time end Min sold price Max sold price Avg price Total volume
Jun 11, 14:00 Jun 12, 14:00 $249 $249 $249.00 94,400
Jun 12, 14:00 Jun 13, 14:00 $249 $375 $285.59 3,048,471

My buys
Time start Time end Avg market price Your avg price Your spending
Jun 11, 14:00 Jun 12, 14:00 $249.00 N/A $0
Jun 12, 14:00 Jun 13, 14:00 $285.59 $299.00 $394,927,572

I've bought 33% of this market myself. lol (And that's only the oil I bought on public)

You're still wrong lol

Can't kill in one run, it takes more hits than you calced to kill because the target recovers pop in between. In my war last set, target had 1.2M troops and 110% weap tech at the beginning of the killing. Bought troops and ran turns throughout, until maybe the last 30-40 hits. I was one person, who had already grabbed to something like 17k acres at that point, mostly hitting techers who had defense. Then I switched to war footing, did a lot more hits than you calcd. In fact my opponent did a better job of walling than your "unkillable" alliance country did earlier this reset.

Additionally, there's not "1 isolated success story." Oiling has figured into several of my best sets this year, the majority of my 50M+ finishes. I'm not the only one either. As numerous people who have had FAR more success than you keep pointing out to you, all of your assumptions are horsefluff, and even last set what we actually experienced doesn't line up with the story you're telling/selling.

@kingme

Just look at news of EXPRESS last set on IRC. #expressnews

@vic
You’re right that real wars have variables weapon tech, walling, troop buys, timing. But the point of the math is to give a realistic baseline. Let's walk through it with your 1.2 million troop claim.

If the defender starts with 1.2 million troops and loses 8% per hit, the troop count shrinks exponentially:

This follows the formula:
1,200,000 × (0.92)^n < 100

Solving that gives:
n > log(100 / 1200000) / log(0.92) ≈ 110.7

So about 111 hits would reduce them from 1.2 million to under 100 troops assuming no replenishment.

Now the oil usage:
If you're using 100,000 troops per hit and oil use is 1 per 25 units, that's:
100,000 / 25 = 4,000 oil per hit
4,000 × 111 = 444,000 oil total

Even if they bought some troops during the war, you aren't burning through 5 to 10 million oil to kill someone unless you're wildly inefficient.

Also:
cd(1.2 million) 20x = ~530,000 troops
530,000 × 0.7 = ~371,000 troops after demo

So even without the kill happening in one burst, the math still heavily favors exponential troop loss.

When you're being attacked by 30+ countries,. you cannot wall all their attacks. Even with perfect walling. Futhermore, they had to use outside help to break my country, even with their 30+ countries. Go back and look at the history.

If you look at all the countries of EE I still hold one of the highest defends of any country in the game. And I died bc of pci death,.. which is unfortunate rounding issue of game.

Not to beat a dead horse here, but I need to grab right now and went to buy oil and there is none on the public.
I'm just now at the point where I would be grabbing heavily and buying off the public instead of producing my own. Around 700 turns played.

@kingme

Even if you had 1,000 turns to attack with:

That gives you 500 attacks (2 turns per hit)
But realistically, only about 1/4 of your turns would go toward attacking once you factor in readiness and building, so you're looking at around 125 actual attacks
At 1 million jets per attack, that’s 125 million jets, requiring about 7 million oil (125 ÷ 25)
Even if you send 2 million jets per hit, that’s still only 14 million oil

And that’s assuming you’re perfectly optimizing every single turn, something most players don’t do. On top of that, a large portion of the server runs techer, meaning their oil usage is minimal.

Most players are just hitting undefended countries for small gains, so they don’t even need to buy oil. The only players buying significant oil are the 3 to 4 strong ones who understand how to calculate true DR, not the flawed DR column shown in eestats.

What the heck is pci death?

Can I do this on purpose with my tax rate?

This website shows the right DR

https://li.servegame.com/news/rank_list.php?snum=8

I’ve had to buy off PM this set too. It’s been empty every time I’ve looked. Should have set some standing orders.

I sold 1m bushels at $75 to someone too

Celphi: is your goal to mislead others and to cause chaos on the boards? I cannot understand this behavior.

Slag what did i say that was misleading?

Why would my respectful opinion ( I've made no personal attacks or anything like that ) be considered chaos?

People on all these threads are trolling, name-calling, threatening ppl IRL. I'm legitimately presenting a viewpoint specifically about EE that anyone may argue with and it's somehow offensive. I'm honestly not trying to do that. If you want me to drop subject I can.

The game has calculated DR for players for over a year now. It's cool if you want to post on the boards and not play but I do not understand the purpose in presenting yourself as an expert in the game when you don't seem to really be playing. I don't see any notable Express finishes on your public profile over the past 4 years. When is the last time you won Express?

I wanted to clarify my point about DR. The eestats site, which is still listed in the EXPRESS sticky thread under "Third Party Sites," has never provided an accurate reflection of DR. That has been a known limitation for some time. I do not mean this as a personal criticism or to suggest anyone is being dishonest. It is simply something that has been observed consistently by many players, and I can provide examples if that would be helpful.

As for my own experience, I have placed first in Express before, though that is no longer my goal. Once I saw how some players coordinated to manipulate markets through external chats, the competitive aspect lost its appeal for me. These days, I play mostly for war and to test out new ideas. That is why you may have seen a long solo kill thread that was eventually closed. Of course, that experience was from a couple of years ago, and I recognize that the game has changed significantly since then.

What I am struggling to understand is the shift in tone around feedback. In the past, players raised concerns about bots, and those conversations were well received. In fact, they even led to changes that helped make more strategies viable. It seems that this type of discussion is less welcome now. If that is the direction the community is moving in, I completely understand, and I will keep my comments to myself moving forward.

Noted that you didn't answer the question.

Let me try a programming analogy for you. Suppose you were the head maintainer for a piece of open source software. You start getting feedback from an end user who is using a ten year old version of the software. Is this useful feedback? Would any community discussion around that feedback be useful?

I understand the analogy, and I see where you're coming from.

That said, I don’t believe I’m giving feedback based on an outdated understanding of the game. I’ve been actively playing recently, and the DR behavior I referenced is from the current version. My earlier experiences may have shaped my perspective, but the observations I shared were drawn from recent sets, not from a version of the game that’s years old.

If there’s something I’m missing or if the DR system has changed in a way that isn’t reflected in how it's being calculated or displayed in-game or on third-party tools, I’m open to learning more. I’m not here to stir up drama or derail discussion. I enjoy this game and the community, and my only intention was to raise what I genuinely thought was a relevant point.

If you’d prefer I step back from this topic, I will. Just wanted to make sure you knew my comments were made in good faith and based on recent in-game experience.

I forgot there was an in game search. I was talking about estats too in my post. It would be cool if estats was right. I find estats to be not only very helpful but it also makes the game more enjoyable. The leaderboards on it are a great aspect. It makes the wars more interesting to see how they are stacking up against the competition.

This is a gross understatement again. Just looking at eestats, every set you see so many countries make 200 attacks.

And also the breaks are 2.5-4m on sat/sun, so easily 150m jets per grabbing session. 2 grab sessions on the weekend is 300m jets worth of oil.

Right now, as a small techer, I've already bought 4m oil so far. lol (And no, not everyone is playing techer)

And also, there is DR in the in-game search that's accurate.

Lastly, none of the nw records you see in the sticky is a result of any coordination, or market manipulation, or bot abuse.

All the major strats are viable (farmer, indy, casher, techer). You don't need to cheat to win.

(Except me, of course, I use cheat codes all the time.)

I don't think that it's good to denigrate the achievements of others, especially when they are vague accusations from years ago that cannot really be defended against. Here is the round with the highest total for the top ten: https://www.earthempires.com/express/600/ranks . The round with the second highest total is the one before that.

How can so many top players all be achieving high NWs at the same time through market manipulation? It makes no sense.

If you see cheating going on in game then report it the moderators.

I'm going to step back from posting further.

My intention was simply to share why I no longer pursue top rankings on any server particularly EXPRESS not to diminish anyone else's accomplishments.

There was a well-known issue that significantly impacted how I approached the game, and it ultimately made me less willing to invest time into detailed strategy planning. At one point, I even stopped playing entirely, which I mentioned in older threads. That only changed after adjustments were made by the moderators to the minimum oil price.

What I brought up isn't speculation it's something that was acknowledged by a game developer here:
https://earthempires.com/.../21-oil-haha-30207#542381

I know you guys don't believe my ability,. which is OK, but I can offer one set I got 100mil and beat tmac on TEAMS (where there are 0 bots):

1 kerafyrm (#39) 22,863 $100,000,000 HG Darkness <--------------------- me
2 ashe (#33) 7 $73,296,055 HG zigzag
3 Top 50 (#31) Game profile 30 $67,702,230 HG HCaFC <--------------------- TMAC
4 Looten Plunder (#45) 103 $66,585,196 HG VILLAINS
5 Hyundai Sonata (#4) Game profile 18,918 $66,036,071 R HCaFC
6 Sietch Tabr (#22) Game profile 20,136 $65,293,413 DG HCaFC
7 3rd timez a charm (#35) 56 $63,202,085 HG weedylar
8 grilled halibut (#13) Game profile 20,350 $60,621,365 H zigzag
9 Sly Sludge (#49) 120 $57,848,162 HG VILLAINS
10 Peacefully Netting (#37) Game profile 43 $57,448,665 HG zigzag

That wasn't my assumption, nor what I was was disagreeing about. I don't quite share your viewpoint on the oil market in express is all. I apologize if you felt my dialogue was anything other.

So express isn't competitive because some players cheated 11 years ago with market manipulation, but the team server (which allows FA) is competitive. Got it.

@Celphi
6.5m barrels bought so far, I personally have bought over 300k barrels in the past hour off my PM.
There definitely seems to be more demand than you experienced last set, or what you're calculating.

I still have over 600 turns of grabbing to do. Recent breaks have been closer to 2m breaks, so you can see I still need a boatload of oil just for myself. nitelL is saying he's in the same boat it sounds like.

Since Tmac isn’t here to defend himself I will put it out there he played with snake on team and we have the highest score over on that server. That’s why I have the #1 spot for highest 3 NW. I think we hit 210 mil, that was a set or two after tmac left I think but with him we may have hit 225 or more possibly.

I think it’s possible that score will never be beat. If anyone does it I assume it will be Gerdlers crew.

Every player on the team was elite to accomplish that it was definitely a team effort. Andrew and Tert and Nite and Crackhead I think played that last round with us. Very skilled team.

@Celphi

17m+ barrels of oil sold so far this set in express. Still over 24 hours left.

I have 1k rigs of production, and net of that I've already bought 2m barrels of oil, and have 500 turns of grabbing/building ahead of me where the breaks are 2-3m+.

Lotsa oil needed!

Jun 17, 16:00 Jun 17, 17:00 $127 $128 $127.57 705,870
Jun 17, 17:00 Jun 17, 18:00 $120 $120 $120.00 305,968
Jun 17, 18:00 Jun 17, 19:00 $99 $120 $108.65 500,368
Jun 17, 19:00 Jun 17, 20:00 $120 $120 $120.00 18,185
Jun 17, 20:00 Jun 17, 21:00 $120 $127 $121.73 592,018
Jun 17, 23:00 Jun 18, 00:00 $133 $140 $138.38 468,973
Jun 18, 02:00 Jun 18, 03:00 $133 $133 $133.00 140,000
Jun 18, 03:00 Jun 18, 04:00 $133 $133 $133.00 43,226
Jun 18, 04:00 Jun 18, 05:00 $133 $133 $133.00 69,000
Jun 18, 05:00 Jun 18, 06:00 $133 $133 $133.00 185,774
Jun 18, 10:00 Jun 18, 11:00 $169 $169 $169.00 98,887
Jun 18, 11:00 Jun 18, 12:00 $168 $168 $168.00 309,637
Jun 18, 12:00 Jun 18, 13:00 $168 $225 $174.90 2,238,327
Jun 18, 14:00 Jun 18, 15:00 $170 $170 $170.00 237,424
Jun 18, 15:00 Jun 18, 16:00 $198 $198 $198.00 215,000
Jun 18, 16:00 Jun 18, 17:00 $198 $198 $198.00 503,333
Jun 18, 17:00 Jun 18, 18:00 $198 $198 $198.00 100,000
Jun 18, 18:00 Jun 18, 19:00 $149 $149 $149.00 30,000
Jun 18, 19:00 Jun 18, 20:00 $149 $149 $149.00 113,570
Jun 18, 20:00 Jun 18, 21:00 $124 $124 $124.00 444,322
Jun 18, 21:00 Jun 18, 22:00 $124 $124 $124.00 508,909
Jun 18, 22:00 Jun 18, 23:00 $124 $124 $124.00 24,466
Jun 19, 00:00 Jun 19, 01:00 $124 $124 $124.00 581,484
Jun 19, 01:00 Jun 19, 02:00 $124 $124 $124.00 273,000
Jun 19, 02:00 Jun 19, 03:00 $124 $124 $124.00 40,000
Jun 19, 03:00 Jun 19, 04:00 $124 $124 $124.00 3,522,191
Jun 19, 06:00 Jun 19, 07:00 $124 $124 $124.00 1,000,000
Jun 19, 07:00 Jun 19, 08:00 $124 $124 $124.00 302,202
Jun 19, 09:00 Jun 19, 10:00 $122 $122 $122.00 130,000
Jun 19, 10:00 Jun 19, 11:00 $122 $122 $122.00 794,653
Jun 19, 11:00 Jun 19, 12:00 $122 $122 $122.00 206,391
Jun 19, 12:00 Jun 19, 13:00 $121 $124 $122.17 1,002,289
Jun 19, 13:00 Jun 19, 14:00 $121 $225 $122.43 729,401
Jun 19, 14:00 Jun 19, 15:00 $199 $199 $199.00 200,000

This is at turn 1550. Roughly 450 turns left in set.

Total oil thus far:
16,634,868

1 oiler with 10k land could produce all this in 554 turns.

And im going to bet,. much of this was bought so that they don't have to risk paying higher tomorrow.

Also keep in mind the last 4 hrs of set (roughly 60 turns of set most can't attack <GDI RULES>, so most will NOT be buying oil).

Also techers shouldnt be attacking anymore and just teching.

This is at turn 1550. Roughly 450 turns left in set.

You're assuming people aren't playing turn delayed.. I'm guessing most of the bigger players have 1k turns left.
(I have 1k turns left. 500 grabbing turns, 500 stocking turns.)

The point of the thread isn't to say oilers are not needed. It's to say oil isnt consumed enough., which in turns discourages players from playing oiler.

32 human players
9 are still in protection

Leaves 23 players.

Top 15 are clearly not playing delayed 1k turns; because you're not getting 5mil net by turn 550 w/ 200+ CS.

Leaves what maybe 8 players who *could* be playing delayed.

I just know that the 3-4m oil being used in a set statement was incorrect. This set is going to end with over 20m barrels used.
I've proven if there is supply, there is MUCH more consumption of oil than what was stated here.

Is it a viable strategy for a win? No.
I still say that a Fascist Farmer/Oiler could be a very viable strategy if played properly.

@kingme

Just to clarify, I never claimed that only 3 to 4 million barrels of oil are consumed each set. That number came from what I personally sold, not a statement on total market activity. It's an important distinction because other players, especially those with rigs or running oiler setups, could be placing oil on the market and meeting some of the demand that others attribute to shortages.

The real issue isn't whether oil moves at all, it's whether the oiler strategy is competitive. There's clearly some demand, but it's highly concentrated both in timing, usually around break windows, and among a small number of active breakers. Outside those windows, oil often stagnates and oilers don’t have the tools that other strategies do to adapt.

Techers can stock tech and sell later. Cashers can hold bushels. Indies can delay building or hold units. But oil can't be stockpiled in the same way, and you can't delay your payoff if the market isn't ready. If demand isn’t there when you need it, your entire strategy suffers.

So the question isn’t whether oil sells, it’s whether oilers can win or even keep pace. Right now the answer seems to be rarely. The strategy lacks scalability, flexibility in timing, and often relies on hoping for external market conditions to align just right.

I'm not saying oilers shouldn't exist. I'm saying they deserve better structural support if they're going to compete meaningfully instead of just being background suppliers for stronger strategies.

Appreciate the discussion and always open to hearing other perspectives.

If I recall correctly,. there used to be oiler bots,. but it appears they've all been removed.

All I'm suggesting is that bots consume some oil, just like tehy consume tech, food or units. I mean, why do they buy jets & no oil?